Today’s lead story in The Ottawa Sun was that the Conservatives were headed for a majority with a 21% lead according to the most recent polling. The problem was that the poll referred to predated the scandal around the G8/G20 summit.
Ekos, a different polling company, now reports that post-scandal and going into the debates last night, Harper’s support had dropped to single digits and that he was looking at a significantly reduced minority. Here’s what Ekos says:
“In what is the tightest period of the race so far, the 11-point cushion that Conservatives had in the opening days of the campaign has been replaced with a scant 5.6-point lead. Their comfortable and seat-efficient Ontario margin of 10 points has basically vanished and, at these numbers, the Conservatives would be looking at a significantly diminished minority.
“The Conservatives are now at 33.8 points nationally – down from the outset of the early campaign where they were at 36.9 points. They are now more than three points shy of the last election and showing newfound weakness in the key regions of Ontario, and British Columbia. Meanwhile, the Liberals are moving up steadily (if unspectacularly) and are now tied in the crucial Ontario market.”
From a 21 point fictitious lead to one that’s less than 6 per cent? A helluva difference and shame on The Ottawa Sun for presenting polling results as fact that were out of date without mentioning the details.
Peggy’s regular blog posts on writing and getting published will resume on May 3rd, after the Canadian election.