I think the Winnipeg Free Press has been doing a helluva job of reporting this election so far. And the posted comments on their articles are as thoughtful as any I’ve seen. In today’s story about the recent Harris-Decima poll, which shows Ignatieff gaining some traction, pretty much all the posters said the same thing: they’d like to see graphics of all these polls so they could see the overall trend. I’m happy to provide that link.
Simon Fraser University has been doing this for the last few elections: compiling a rolling total of polls gathered nation-wide. Statistically, they’ve been pretty accurate at assessing the final standings. Regional breakdowns (eg. Ontario) are in tabular form. Today, for example, the most recent poll, by Leger, shows the Tories down six points in Ontario.
But I think it’s their graphic depiction that’s most interesting: it shows the Tories stalling and the Liberals steadily trending up. All of this could change either way, and quickly of course: that’s the nature of a campaign. But when Harper declares he wants a majority, he’d better achieve it, or the result will be seen as a failure. If those lines continue converging the way that they are, the knives will be out.
Peggy’s regular blog posts on writing and getting published will resume on May 3rd, after the Canadian election.